Predictions for the 2024 bitcoin halving have changed


The next bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place in April 2024. But, according to a Coinbase study, this time the halving could have limited effects on the price of bitcoin. It has already experienced a sharp increase and remains penalized by very high key rates.

If there is an important date for the entire bitcoin industry, it is that of halving. The event, which takes place every four years, each time constitutes a notable milestone for crypto fans: the halving halves the number of bitcoins granted to miners as a reward for their work. Every time a halving took place, the price of bitcoin exploded.

In 2012, during the very first halving in the history of bitcoin, its price rose from 12 to 1,200 dollars in a few months. After 2016, when the price of bitcoin was established around $650, a first peak was reached at $16,000. The last halving, which took place in 2020, was accompanied by the most impressive increase to date: in a few months, bitcoin rose from 10,000 to more than 60,000 dollars.

The next halving, which is due to take place in April 2024, should logically lead to a further increase. Many observers have also predicted that the crypto market will soar in the coming months. But a new study, published on March 20, 2024, shows that events may not go as planned this time.

All previous bitcoin records occurred after a halving // Source: Coinmarketcap / Numerama screenshotAll previous bitcoin records occurred after a halving // Source: Coinmarketcap / Numerama screenshot
All previous bitcoin records occurred after a halving. // Source: Coinmarketcap / Numerama screenshot

In 2024, bitcoin halving could be different

The study, published by Coinbase, was shared by the specialized media CoinDesk on March 21, 2024. It somewhat dampens the hopes of certain observers. “ While it is possible that halving has a positive impact on bitcoin's performance, there is still little historical evidence of this relationship, making it somewhat speculative. “, specifies the Coinbase study. It is true that halving had become a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy – an aspect that has been widely criticized by bitcoin's detractors.

In 2024, we can also see that the market got excited even before the halving took place, which was not the case for previous halvings. The increase in prices always took place afterwards. At the beginning of March, bitcoin broke its previous record following an impressive price explosion.

Its price is affected by other influences, such as macroeconomic factors “, explains Coinbase. So, in 2020, when bitcoin experienced its biggest growth, halving had occurred “ in an environment with extraordinarily loose monetary policy and historically strong fiscal stimulus in response to the covid-19 pandemic “. Many financial institutions had taken measures to help the economy during covid: the ECB had kept a very low key rate and helped banks to have more liquidity. Measures which made it possible to have a framework conducive to crypto-currencies.

What will be the effect of the next bitcoin halving?  // Source: CanvaWhat will be the effect of the next bitcoin halving?  // Source: Canva
What will be the effect of the next bitcoin halving? // Source: Canva

Today, the economic context is no longer the same: the key rate of the European Central Bank is still very high, in order to fight against inflation, and it is no longer at all as easy to have access to liquidity. Moreover, ” the recent rise in bitcoin prices has been fueled more by fever over the prospects of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) than by excitement over halving ”, according to the Coinbase report.

Since ETFs have already hit the market, and a new bitcoin price record was reached before the April 2024 halving, a significant price increase seems uncertain. Above all, another point must be taken into consideration, according to Coinbase. “ The holders (from bitcoin) in the long term should consider halving less as an opportunity to sell upwards that short-term holders. ” Gold, ” the amount of bitcoin currently held by long-term holders is quite high by historical standards », notes CoinDesk.

Concretely, fewer people than before could be likely to sell their bitcoins, even in the event of a price increase. And, if there is no one to sell, the market is not necessarily in great shape. The Coinbase report, however, concludes on a positive note: the American central bank could lower its key rates in May, bringing promising news for the markets. It remains to be seen what will really happen in April, during the next halving.


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