Thrill-seekers were not disappointed in 2022: on the currency market, the dollar soared, crushing all other currencies, and bitcoin, the star of cryptos, fell by more than 65%! As for leveraged products, which amplify the performance of a stock or an index, they have brought happiness to those who had bet on the fall of the markets, and impoverished others… This is how things evolve investments dedicated to speculation: they can rise very high one year, then fall very low the next. Here are Capital's predictions for 2023.

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Gold coins and bars

Products showing decreasing earning potential for 2023

2022 performance: + 6.4% for the ounce of gold, in euros
Risk : medium to high
Duration of detention: from a few months to several years

After peaking at $2,000 at the start of 2022, an ounce of gold continued to fall to reach $1,750 at the end of November. “The rise in interest rates has not worked in its favor,” analyzes Jean-François Faure, founder Once its value is converted into euros, the yellow metal still ends the year with a gain close to 6.5%. Holders of 20 franc Napoleons even get away with 12.9% capital gain due to the appreciation of the premium (difference between the price of the ounce and the value of the coin). Still, 2023 does not bode well. Gold, which provides no return, appears less attractive than American bonds, whose 10-year rate has just crossed the 3.5% mark. And then, the looming recession in Europe risks strengthening the dollar, an element which will weigh on the price of an ounce.

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Taxation: in the absence of a purchase invoice, a global tax of 11.5% applies to the amount of gold sold. If the purchase price can be proven, it is possible to opt for capital gains tax at a rate of 19%, to which are added 17.2% social security contributions. A reduction for holding period then applies, of 5% per year from the third year.

Read also : Livret A, LEP, old PEL… the best risk-free investments at the end of 2022

Leveraged stock market products

Products showing stable earning potential for 2023

Gain : linked to the leverage used (from 2 to 40 times the stake)
Potential loss: 100%
Duration of detention: from a few days to a few weeks

Certificates, turbos and warrants have in common: they allow you to multiply the rise or fall of a security (index, share, currency, etc.), while being easily purchased via an ordinary securities account. The easiest to use are certificates. Let's take the Short X5, which amplifies the opposite evolution of the CAC 40 with a leverage of 5: when the index loses 1%, the certificate gains 5%. Perfect when the markets, as in 2022, have gone through successive phases of decline. A turbo is more subtle to handle: it has a deactivating barrier which, if reached, causes you to lose your entire stake. “Informed investors most often opt for a leverage of 20 or 25,” explains Maxime Vivier, head of stock market products at UniCredit. Betting on a warrant is even more complex: its value varies depending on the price of the security but also the time remaining before expiry.

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Taxation: earnings are subject to 17.2% social security contributions and IR (income tax) via a deposit at the rate of 12.8%. On a global option, they can be subject to IR.

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Currencies on forex

Products showing stable earning potential for 2023

Gain : linked to the leverage used (up to 30 times the stake)
Potential loss: 100%
Duration of detention: from a few hours to a few days

One-way year on the foreign exchange market (Forex), dominated by the dollar, which gained 10% against the euro, 15% against the pound sterling and 20% against the yen. Given the economic context, the 2023 vintage could be of the same ilk. Interested individuals can access it via leveraged products (read above) or CFDs, specific instruments distributed by specialized Internet brokers. But be careful, fraudulent sites are legion in this niche. To avoid problems, it is better to opt for a reputable and duly regulated broker, such as IG, Saxo Banque or XTB.

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Taxation: identical to that of stock market products.

Read also : Life insurance, PER: the rate of the euro fund of your contract should increase

Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies

Products showing decreasing earning potential for 2023

2022 performance of bitcoin: – 60% in euros
Potential loss: 100%
Duration of detention: from a few hours to several months

Nearly 1.6 billion euros in losses for customers: this is the first assessment drawn from the fraudulent bankruptcy of FTX (end of November 2022), one of the main cryptocurrency exchange platforms. The stock market storm of 2022 had already not spared bitcoin, which fell, between March and July 2022, from 48,000 to 20,000 dollars. This cataclysm has since plunged it below $17,000. Ethereum, Solana, Cardano… All other cryptos followed, losing between 60 and 70% of their value over the year. “Once cleaned up, the market will recover,” predicts Manuel Valente, scientific director of Coinhouse. It's probably not for tomorrow.

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And those who want to try their luck will do well to choose their platform carefully, ensuring at least that it is registered with the AMF, the Financial Markets Authority (read our table). “As a precaution, it is also better to repatriate your cryptos to a private safe, in other words on a secure USB key, rather than leaving them on the platform,” advises Jonathan Herscovici, the founder of the fintech StackinSat.

Taxation: none if the exchanges are between cryptocurrencies, or if the gain is converted into euros, and less than 305 euros. In other cases, capital gains support social security contributions of 17.2%, as well as IR at a rate of 12.8%.

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5 cryptocurrency purchasing platforms registered with the AMF

Sources: Establishments

(1) It is also possible to repatriate your cryptos to a personal safe, such as that of Ledger or Trezor (ultra-secure USB keys), or that of MetaMask or Trust Wallet (Internet software, a little less secure).
(2) Depending on the payment method used (card or bank transfer), the volume of transactions, the type of crypto or Internet network, etc.
(3) 1.80% of the amount transferred if the transaction is carried out by bank card.
(4) The safe offered internally is disconnected from the Internet, therefore more secure.

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