With the 4th halving of Bitcoin having been completed without incident, what are the levels to watch for the cryptocurrency while waiting for a movement on its price?

It is Monday April 22, 2024 and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $66,000.

A new era is dawning this week for Bitcoin. Halving 2024 is behind us, making supply at source scarcer by reducing the rewards for miners. In the history of BTC cycles, this event is conducive to a sustained increase in the following weeks and months.

It is also the macro-economic aspect which is notable this week, since it provides us with 2 important figures, and these could impact the markets and cause a shift in prices. Indeed, this Thursday the first version of US GDP for the 1st quarter of 2024 will be revealed. Friday, it will be the turn of inflation with the PCE.

These figures are crucial since they will encourage market players to adjust their projections. The purpose of this will be an arbitrage aimed at adjusting their exposure to risky assets. In particular, after the disappointment of the latest CPI inflation figure, the PCE will be eagerly awaited!

In a context where geopolitical tensions in the Middle East seem less acute, the crypto market is breathing by achieving a technical rebound from key support levels. Will the good fundamental news from the Bitcoin network with the success of the 4th Halving make it possible to convert this technical rebound into something more powerful?

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Institutional appetite weakens, but maintains relative balance – Derivatives markets are calm

Pairs with Bitcoin 24 hours 7 days 1 month
Bitcoin/USDT +1.60% -0.5% +2.30%
ETH/Bitcoin -0.30% -0.60% -6.20%

Volumes on Bitcoin ETFs have been declining since the beginning of March. The precursors in this category of investors may have allocated the capital they wanted to put at risk in the crypto market in the short term.

Bitcoin ETF Volumes

US Spot Bitcoin ETF Volumes

However, the flow manages to balance out, the volumes slow down equally in both buying and selling. This slowdown seems consistent with the reality of the opening of a new market. After a sustained first wave, a calmer period should set in.

BTC ETF Inflow

History of liquidations on Bitcoin

On the derivative market side, we can see that fundings are at their lowest since the start of Bitcoin's current range. We have even been able to observe an accumulation of short positions since April 9, which results in an increase in the long/short ratio.

We can observe 2 bearish excesses on April 12 and 18 with a shift in funding into negative. The shorts then paid the longs to maintain their position. This is a rare situation in the crypto market, especially on time units like the daily.

Since April 19, longs seem to be regaining control in a context where capital on the derivative market remains generally stable. Some short positions are closed, while at the same time long positions are opened for an equivalent capital weight.

It will now be appropriate to monitor the level of open interest and the direction of the market as it approaches the upper and lower limits of the range.

Bitcoin derivative metrics

Metrics of derivative markets on Bitcoin

The dominance of BTC against altcoins retraces to 55%, while the ETH/BTC pair fell by 0.60% over the week. As a result, Bitcoin is losing ground and capital is flowing back into the altcoin market. This phenomenon remains very measured. It will be appropriate to monitor the test of the summit of the ascending triangle (around 54%) to know the further development of the movement.

Chart of Bitcoin dominance on a weekly basis

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BTC re-enters its weekly range!

After a test of $60,000, Bitcoin managed to re-enter its weekly range at the end of the week.

A re-entry is often a good indicator to retest the opposite end of the range, which could give us a first target at $70,000 and above.

In the short term, the trend remains neutral, the asset is heavy. This week has macro events in store for us which tend to lead market players to derisk. We therefore expect a week marked by a consolidation of the ongoing technical rebound.

It is also a week during which we will have to observe the impact of the “halving” narrative. Will this narrative allow Bitcoin to find the strength to pursue price discovery beyond its ATH?

We are in a very important period for the direction of Bitcoin but also for the entire cryptocurrency market. The objective will be to hold the 64,000 dollars at the weekly close.

On a daily basis, we will need to monitor the holding of $60,000 at the risk of falling towards our dynamic Kijun and weekly SMA20 supports. To the north, a close above $66,867 would be a positive sign for a return to the old 2021 ATH and then the opposite end of the range.

Bitcoin USDT

Weekly Bitcoin price chart

We could continue to work this range as long as there is no catalyst in the markets allowing us to escape from it.

Macroeconomic figures, geopolitical news, FED policy changes, a 2nd institutional buying wave are all elements that can cause this catalyst. Furthermore, the question we ask is whether halving will have the strength to be this catalyst.

Indeed, if the increase in recent months is mainly linked to institutional pressure, we have seen that the latter is drying up. It will now be necessary to take over from other classes of investors to push Bitcoin higher.

In the meantime, it is the range which is to be favored, but overall the big levels have not changed since last week. To the south, we have dynamic support from the conjunction of the SMA20 and Kijun. To the north, a resumption of the rise is forced to exceed the ATH at $74,000.

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In summary, Bitcoin remains bullish on the bottom and could end up starting to rise again towards $84,000 if it manages to break the range from above. To the south, we have a support level around $55,000 in the event of a more marked correction.

So, do you think BTC can already set a new price record? Don't hesitate to give us your opinion in the comments.

Have a nice day and we’ll see you next week for a new analysis of Bitcoin (BTC).

Sources: TradingView, Coinglass, Glassnode

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